Whilst the governents are thrashing around unsure of what they should be doing I thought I'd put down my thoughts on what we should be doing to stay safe for those of us who aren't particularly vulnerable with kids.
I think the biggest issue facing society is how to 'unscare' everyone. I'm afraid that will largely fall to governments.
I am amazed though that 6 months in and quadrillions of $ worth spent and we have not been told the following:
- Do children pass it to adults?
- Do children get it and quickly kill it or are they asymptomatic plague carriers (there is mounting evidence that they do carry larger viral loads however kids going back to school seemed to have little impact on Covid levels inthe UK)? See: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/pediatric-hcp.html
- Do pet animals pass it back to people (we know cats and dogs can get infected)
- What happened to the porton down report Matt Hanckock said would be published in May 2020? It was random sampling to see how many people had the virus or antibodies. See here: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-tests-never-heard-hold-key-exit-lockdown/
I think the clue may lie in the missing report fro. Those tests. It will have found one of 4 things:
1. The samples showed very little covid in the uk outside those who were symptomatic and known to the health care system
2. The samples showed a very large number of people with antibodies maybe 15%+ of the population. Implying the disease was endemic and had probably been in the country since Dec with many people having few or no symptoms. See German study: https://youtu.be/rMWdPRhu_p8
3. Porton down are muppets and stuffed up the project (possible but a bit unlikely)
4. The samples showed some limited spread beyond those displaying symptoms.
It should also have told us whether kids have it or just don't get it/kill it within hours of getting it.
Where is the report? Why are they not publishing it?
My guess is that it might be because it is #2 above and the govt would appear totally incompetent if they had let it get to that stage. However that would have meant that we shouldn't have gone into lockdown. Also why have other counties not done an equivalent report?
If we put aside all the fun conspiracy theories we are left with the uk and other governments having no idea what they are doing and irresponsibly doing no meaningful work to understand the virus in our county. We know its endemic in the UK now. That's been admitted.
So I fear as usual its up to us as individuals and now we need to guess the risk to each of us and how to reduce it.
My guess based on my knowledge of other viruses and the data we've been given so far is that:
A) it infects people very easily through aerosol droplets
B) in non- vulnerable people the dose you get matters in the sense that a low viral load will be easy for your body to kill but higher levels of exposure will give you worse symptoms (especially if you get it from more than one person). I know and have met/hugged elderly people who didn't even know they had it. They were fine. However nurses have had to watch fit and healthy people pass away from the same disease! Evidence for this is mounting: See https://inelcos.com/2020/06/15/hendrik-streeck-german-virologist-and-author-of-a-key-study-on-covid-19-the-coronavirus-is-far-less-deadly-than-we-thought/
[EDIT Oct 2020: the above page has been removed - I'm investigating an alternative]
[EDIT Oct 2020: Seems like they are trying to shut this guy down (you'll have to decide if its valid or not):
C) if you have a low viral load you are probably not very infectious... although if you stay asymptomatic while your body is killing it you may be spreading it a little
D) touch is not the main transmission route (how many times have all the delivery drivers pressed my fire bell one after another.. very few wear gloves!! Sorry that was flippant but we know viruses like this die in minutes if not cocooned in water or moist mucus). Also see this German study:https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8182767/Scientist-casts-doubt-coronavirus-spread.html
E) the virus also dies within minutes when droplets land on cloth
F) men are definitely more at risk of dying if they get a nasty dose. See https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/covid-hormones-oestrogen
G) the vulnerability to having a bad reaction is linked to hormones, testosterone and oestrogen, maybe others. This is probably why normal kids who are pre-pubescent seem to be totally unaffected
H) antibodies do not confer permanent immunity, as they reduce after a period of time which correlates to view badly you had the disease. This will apply to a vaccine too.
All of the above would mean it's endemic (even in NZ) and not very dangerous and we have totally overreacted.
So to keep our families safe:
1. Assume you and the kids will be exposed to it at some point in the next year and beyond.
2. Avoid getting a heavy dose:
2.A. steer well clear if obviously sick people
2.B. Avoid being in confined spaces for more than a minute with people you aren't sure of
2.C. do not stand behind people wearing masks (in front is safer). Remember masks can reduce the dose you get but won't stop you getting it. They do stop you spreading it quite as far is you are diseased.
3. If you or Kavida/Lucy get any syptoms go and get a covid test. Don't bother with the kids... just get it if an adult starts showing symptoms
4. If test was negative but it gets worse get another test. They are only 75% accurate (maybe less)
5. If you do get it treat it seriously (especially us men). You do NOT want to end up in critical care.
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