WARNING: my fears about the over use of the vaccine may be materialising

An emergency warning for my friends and family,  the UK is at risk of  becoming a pariah bigger than China:

I've written about how I'm concerned that we are driving the current SARS-CoV2 variant to mutate around the vaccine but I am getting increasingly concerned that that variant will mutate into our worst fear:

A killer of healthy younger people and kids (see link about France below).

To stop this we need to let the current variant out of it's box ASAP. You have seen how quickly these types of virus mutate... we can't do a small pox type eradication programme on that type of virus. 

Vaccination roll out needs to stop now in the UK for (healthy) people under 50 (maybe still do  40s based on the news below)...

Already they are calling it the UK variant... the one that with be driven to mutate to circumvent the vaccine:

https://f7td5.app.goo.gl/tjZdZK

The predominant variant will now be forced to mutate. Unfortunately rather than the pervious versions this one is killing,  yes, killing younger people (30s & 40s). Not making then very ill but doing them in even though they have no underlying health issues. 

If we are not VERY careful we will get  another variant which will start to kill kids.  Once that happens you can kiss goodbye to your freedom for two to five years. 

Think about it: 

Currently people are toeing the line in the UK because the government insists. And in France people are being slightly more reluctantly cautious. 

If we get a variant that kills 3 in 100 kids or healthy adults in TWO weeks after catching it how many parents are going to send their kids Jasmine's class is 30 kids so that means one will die. How many parents will risk going to work?

How many supermarket workers will turn up for work?

This will mean almost all face to face jobs will be at massive risk VOLUNTARILY.

Given government responses so far how do you think they will react to people refusing to go to work...?

1. Close the borders

2. Blame the UK variant (caused by mass vaccination of all but the young kids leaving the current strain no option but to mutate into a kid infector... and no vaccinating kids won't stop it)

3. Lockdown

4. Masks mask masks 

5. Mandatory vaccine passports (even though by definition the vaccine will have a low efficacy on this new variant)

6. Vaccinate kids

7. Start developing the vaccine

8. Realise that then need to print and borrow more money (we know where this ultimately goes)

As immune escape becomes more widely known about I raise my concerns again about vaccinating too many people

I think it's ok vaccinating over 50s maybe over 40s because even if the immune escape happens we should see the virus out  competed by a version that causes very mild or no symptoms. 

BUT if they carry on vaccinating so many people then there will be no easy pool unvaccinated healthy people for the virus to live in and mutate in towards a state where it hardly causes any symptoms. 

So they are doing 2 potentially bad things:

1. Pressuring the current very infectious (but not scarily virrulent) strains to mutate around the vaccine

2. Not leaving enough healthy people who are unvaccinated about for the virus to mutate in (incidentally giving them natural immunity which is much cheaper than a vaccine) which means there will only be these current mildly dangerous strains.... or worse than that a more deadly version like Mers (35% case fatality rate as opposed to SARS-CoV-2 (well?) under 3%)

Here is one perspective... it probably won't be this extreme, but it could well be.

Https://youtu.be/ZJZxiNxYLpc

Vit D what we know to date. Take supplements or get into the SUN!

 It seems pretty clear to me that we should ensure we have adequate Vitamin D levels. 

https://youtu.be/ha2mLz-Xdpg

 

We will never wipe out COVID

Since we will never eradicate SARS-CoV-2 I am questioning whether we should be trying to vaccinate all adults. 

My worry with the vaccination program is that the very infectious,  although relatively mild current strains will be the ones which mutate to avoid the vaccines. 

Conversely if we stick to vaccinating the vulnerable and NHS sapping demographic (50+) then the remainder of the population will be able to catch the virus and the virus strains which are as infections but LESS virulent (just cause a sniffle or no symptoms at all) will be the ones that out- compete the other. 

It will then be those much less dangerous strains which circumvent the vaccine. 

There is of course a very unlikely possibility that that crucible of healthy people might incubate a massively lethal mutant which is super virulent but also more infectious as in it doesn't affect or kill you until you've infected many people.

Maybe it's the fear of the later case that is driving the mass vaccination.  I suspect however that it's more likely to save the economy. 

Unfortunately it's possible it will do the exact opposite when new lockdowns are required due to emergence new vaccine evading variant which is still as virulent (or more) as the current strain. 

Viral load Is almost certainly important

Circumstantial evidence is mounting that viral load (as we would expect from other viruses) is important.

Another Dr John special:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NQ1h33mPGuU 

What does this mean for us in everyday life, remembering the virus is largely transmitting through aerosol?

1) Ventilation is important

2) Hand shakes are best avoided - or wipe your hands on material afterwards

3) Masks remain important 

4) Distance will help

Infection Fatality Rate Low - Evidence of my assumption at last

 

Dr. John Campbell give a good explanation of the WHO / Stanford Study.

NB for comparison Flu is about 0.04% to 0.1% annually (Ref: https://reason.com/2020/05/24/the-cdcs-new-best-estimate-implies-a-covid-19-infection-fatality-rate-below-0-3/). 

Overall it's looking like if you are exposed to the virus your chance of death is statistically is very low:

0.23% (Median) which is lower than many Influenza viruses

Most areas will be more like 0.20%

People UNDER 70 range from 0% to 0.31% with a median of 0.05%

So if you are under 70 and healthy it is very low and about the SAME or less as Seasonal FLU

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ofGMSH5tjYk

The only 2 things I'd add are:

A) That Covid 19 is much more infectious than most seasonal flu so while the IFR is low it will results in more deaths than seasonal flu.

B) The inoculant (viral load / amount of virus) you get initially and subsequently will have a big impact on how ill you get and risk of death.

Reinfection from Covid proven

COVID 19 is endemic and is going nowhere. 

My guess is we will see antibodies conferring immunity for a few months  possibly even against different strains but any pie in the sky ideas of iradicating it can be consigned to the bin. 

In addition this means every year or even every few months we will probably see new strains coming through which means vaccine lack of effectiveness could be a real problem. 

Scientists confirm Covid-19 reinfection for the first time. 

Please see:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-reinfected-hong-kong-covid-19-study-a9685571.html

Way forward: living with Covid-19 for my friends and family

Whilst the governents are thrashing around unsure of what they should be doing I thought I'd put down my thoughts on what we should be doing to stay safe for those of us who aren't particularly vulnerable with kids.

I think the biggest issue facing society is how to 'unscare' everyone. I'm afraid that will largely fall to governments. 

I am amazed though that 6 months in and quadrillions of $ worth spent and we have not been told the following:

• Do children pass it to adults?
• Do children get it and quickly kill it or are they asymptomatic plague carriers (there is mounting evidence that they do carry larger viral loads however kids going back to school seemed to have little impact on Covid levels inthe UK)? See: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/pediatric-hcp.html
• Do pet animals pass it back to people (we know cats and dogs can get infected)
• What happened to the porton down report Matt Hanckock said would be published in May 2020? It was random sampling to see how many people had the virus or antibodies. See here: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-tests-never-heard-hold-key-exit-lockdown/

I think the clue may lie in the missing report fro. Those tests. It  will have found one of 4 things:

1. The samples showed very little covid in the uk outside those who were symptomatic and known to the health care system

2. The samples showed a very large number of people with antibodies maybe 15%+ of the population. Implying the disease was endemic and had probably been in the country since Dec with many people having few or no symptoms. See German study: https://youtu.be/rMWdPRhu_p8

3. Porton down are muppets and stuffed up the project (possible but a bit unlikely)

4. The samples showed some  limited spread beyond those displaying symptoms.

It should also have told us whether kids have it or just don't get it/kill it within hours of getting it.

Where is the report? Why are they not publishing it?

My guess is that it might be because it is #2 above and the govt would appear totally incompetent if they had let it get to that stage. However that would have meant that we shouldn't have gone into lockdown. Also why have other counties not done an equivalent report?

If we put aside all the fun conspiracy theories we are left with the uk and other governments having no idea what they are doing and irresponsibly doing no meaningful work to understand the virus in our county. We know its endemic in the UK now. That's been admitted.

So I fear as usual its up to us as individuals and now we need to guess the risk to each of us and how to reduce it. 

My guess based on my knowledge of other viruses and the data we've been given so far is that:

A) it infects people very easily through aerosol droplets

B) in non- vulnerable people the dose you get matters in the sense that a low viral load will be easy for your body to kill but higher levels of exposure will give you worse symptoms (especially if you get it from more than one person). I know and have met/hugged elderly people who didn't even know they had it. They were fine. However nurses have had to watch fit and healthy people pass away from the same disease! Evidence for this is mounting: See https://inelcos.com/2020/06/15/hendrik-streeck-german-virologist-and-author-of-a-key-study-on-covid-19-the-coronavirus-is-far-less-deadly-than-we-thought/

[EDIT Oct 2020: the above page has been removed - I'm investigating an alternative]

[EDIT Oct 2020: Seems like they are trying to shut this guy down (you'll have to decide if its valid or not):

https://internetprotocol.co/hype-news/2020/04/23/the-disproof-of-the-coronavirus-research-by-hendrik-streecks/

 

C) if you have a low viral load you are probably not very infectious... although if you stay asymptomatic while your body is killing it you may be spreading it a little

D) touch is not the main transmission route (how many times have all the delivery drivers pressed my fire bell one after another.. very few wear gloves!! Sorry that was flippant but we know viruses like this die in minutes if not cocooned in water or moist mucus). Also see this German study:https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8182767/Scientist-casts-doubt-coronavirus-spread.html

E) the virus also dies within minutes when droplets land on cloth

F) men are definitely more at risk of dying if they get a nasty dose. See https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/covid-hormones-oestrogen

G) the vulnerability to having a bad reaction is linked to hormones, testosterone and oestrogen, maybe others. This is probably why normal kids who are pre-pubescent seem to be totally unaffected

H) antibodies do not confer permanent immunity,  as they reduce after a period of time which correlates to view badly you had the disease. This will apply to a vaccine too.

All of the above would mean it's endemic (even in NZ) and not very dangerous and we have totally overreacted. 

So to keep our families safe:

1. Assume you and the kids will be exposed to it at some point in the next year and beyond.

2. Avoid getting a heavy dose:

  2.A. steer well clear if obviously sick people

  2.B. Avoid being in confined spaces for more than a minute with people you aren't sure of

  2.C. do not stand behind people wearing masks (in front is safer). Remember masks can reduce the dose you get but won't stop you getting it. They do stop you spreading it quite as far is you are diseased. 

3. If you or Kavida/Lucy get any syptoms go and get a covid test. Don't bother with the kids... just get it if an adult starts showing symptoms

4. If test was negative but it gets worse get another test. They are only 75% accurate (maybe less)

5. If you do get it treat it seriously (especially us men). You do NOT want to end up in critical care.

COVID-19 is Endemic and Winter is Coming!

Now Covid-19 looks like it is endemic in the UK we must prepare for winter.

“This infection is not going away, it’s now a human endemic infection,” Jeremy Farrar, Director of the Welcome Trust

This New Scientist Article explains
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2237475-covid-19-news-young-people-may-be-driving-spikes-in-cases-says-who/


It seems almost certain that colder weather will make COVID-19 worse as data is beginning to show:

https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/weather-covid


What do we do about it?

Well we have to come to terms with the facts:
1. We need to start living with the disease in the same way we live with seasonal flu (although it is much more dangerous)
2. We will need a vaccine regime for people at risk
3. We need to get Robust test & treatment regimes in place for everyone who asks for it (whether or not you have symptoms)
4. We cannot wipe this one out, even with a vaccine.

A COVID-19 Vaccine May Not Be the Answer

Unfortunately whoever designed this nasty little beggar did a good job (whether it was a team in the Wuhan lab or God Almighty the problem remains nonetheless).

Basically, the common cold has just grown teeth and we have never developed a cure or vaccine for the common cold.

It seems like antibodies may not last long enough to make a vaccine useful except for very short term protection. My best guess is we are heading for mass vaccinations for all risk categories at critical times of year (e.g. UK winter). They will probably try and combine it with Flu vaccines (if it's safe to do so).

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/coronavirus/coronavirus-immunity-may-only-last-a-few-months-study-suggests/ar-BB16FXBD?ocid=msedgntp

Masks - Do they help with COVID-19?

This post is about face-covering and masks which most people will be using since these are the legal requirement on UK Public transport.

I am writing this because many people it seems are not clear on why face coverings are being made a legal requirement. If you want the headline then here it is - if you want more detail please read on.:

Face coverings and masks almost certainly help reduce the spread of COVID-19 (and other airborne viruses) but they only give limited protection to the person wearing the mask or covering.

Here is some useful info from the US CDC
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/cloth-face-cover.html

This is what the UK government tells you (Clear as to what you should do but suitably vague as to why!)
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/staying-safe-outside-your-home/staying-safe-outside-your-home

As you read this please remember:

1. COVID-19 is an Airborne Virus - that is to say, although it can be transmitted by touch the most dangerous and rapid transmission it has shown is because it travels in aerosol droplets which hover in the air for several minutes and via heavier droplets or gobbets of saliva which land on people from a cough or sneeze
2. Having said that remember where your hands have been - have you touched your face/eyes/mouth or the outside of your mask? Or held a handle someone else has been touching?
3. You can have no symptoms and still be highly infectious
4. People with symptoms are also infectious
5. Some people will only have mild symptoms or no symptoms but still have and be spreading COVID-19
6. COVID-19 will, if like other similar viruses, deactivate within minutes of landing on cloth (the moisture it relies on gets absorbed into the cloth and all indications are that it requires the water to survive outside your body 
7. We don't have all the facts from studies yet so let us be cautious

After you read the rest of this post I hope you will take away the following tips:

• Face masks & coverings protect other people when you have symptoms
• Face masks & coverings may make you feel safer but they only give you limited protection in the case where someone breaths heavily or coughs/sneezed directly in your face
• Don't jog or bicycle right behind people even if they wear masks
• Masks are less important outside if you aren't going to be within 6 meters of people and if you do go withing 6 meters hold your breath until you pass
• Masks should be mandatory when you are indoors with strangers, colleagues or customers (not just)
• Avoid standing behind people with face masks
• Scarfs may actually be better than facemasks at protecting others
• If out and about and likely to be touching things other people have, carry sanitiser or sanitising wipes.
• Be careful removing your mask.
• If you have COVID-19 symptoms please don't go out wearing a mask thinking you are not going to infect people. If you have to for a critical health/safety-related reason a scarf may well be better but if possible use a respirator mask (note you don't need eye-coverings since you are protecting other people)
• Some people ask why the government isn't making it clear to people that masks are mainly about reducing spread by stopping the wearer spreading the virus. Well I can only guess but if I'm feeling generous  I'd say they are hoping that if people believe they are protecting themselves they are more likely to wear them. Unfortunately, this has backfired in some cases as I hear people say (even in shops) - "Oh I'm bound to get it at some point, so I'll take the risk", "the horse has bolted" etc. perhaps not realising that they are significantly protecting customers in the case they have it but don't yet know.
• Some might say "If I'm at risk then I won't bother wearing a mask because it doesn't protect me much". While it's true it doesn't prevent aerosol inhalation some protection is better than none and it might trap that big glob of saliva with 100 billion virus particles in it that would have landed on your lips! That Might be the difference between mild symptoms on a worse case.

Here is a summary of what I believe various face coverings will do to help protect you and others (this is my OWN summary and is not the result of any study as there aren't any comprehensive ones around mask types like all of these):

Here is the more detailed info about why I believe the above statements are almost certainly correct.

General article from Cambridge University about helping prevent the spread:
https://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/widespread-facemask-use-could-shrink-the-r-number-and-prevent-a-second-covid-19-wave-study

Royal Society Modelling study about why masks prevent the spread (and importantly might prevent larger particles with higher Covid "Doses" (Viral load in your infection will be reduced)):
https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspa.2020.0376

Study showing cloth / surgical masks don't filter and it is probably the leakage around the edge of teh masks that causes MORE virus particles on the outside of the mack than in the inside when a wearer coughs.
https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-1342

Article showing how difficult this all is:
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/06/controversy-covid-19-mask-study-spotlights-messiness-science-during

Vitamin D is important before you catch COVID19

Please view the link below.  Vitamin D is important to be topped up in if you were to catch COVID19

https://youtu.be/qyMFsLFAE5o

Model of viral spread in supermarket over shelves

This is about 3 minutes after the sneeze.

Info on COVID 19 for my friends & family (and anyone else)

I've put this together because I'm finding I'm repeating the same info to many people. 
My headline is given the info we have at present we should assume this virus is an extremely infectious virus which is easily transmitted through the air in droplets from infected people’s sneezes, coughs AND breath and we should, therefore, reduce contact with people and keep away from places where may people have been.

Misinformation is also rife so I'm careful to draw out where I've made assumptions based on other viruses. The issue is that the scientific community doesn't like conjecture and like evidence and data. This is a problem when we aren't sure we have all the data and the stuff we do have may be misleading.

I'm relying most on the data coming out of Italy, Spain, France the UK and the USA are likely to be unadulterated. However, they too will only be as good as the testing the full picture in data is still missing.

Hopefully, the information below will help my friends & family understand why the authorities are taking such extreme measures. What I won’t attempt to do is comment on things like stockpiling and when it would be safe to start socialising again since these things really need to be managed by society and will need some of the questions I have answered.

I will add new blog posts and amend this one as more info comes to us.

Facts
1. We all know the disease is a Coronavirus - the same type as SARS & MERS. 
2. It is, therefore, a respiratory disease.
3. It has spread more rapidly than people expected globally and in the UK (I think the establishment & scientists were expecting it to behave like SARS & MERS initially but it is likely down to the period which it is infectious before noticeable symptoms develop)
4. It definitely is more dangerous to older people (especially 70+)
5. It definitely is more dangerous to people with underlying medical conditions or who are pregnant
6. It definitely is less dangerous to younger people (especially people under 20)
7. Washing/sanitising hands is useful to kill the virus
8. Surgical masks (i.e. ones that don’t create an airtight seal around the nose and mouth) are not that useful unless you are infected or treating an infected person  
9. People who die from the disease generally have the disease in the lungs (viral pneumonia – unlike bacterial type antibiotics have no effect)
10. People have a mild illness generally when the upper respiratory tract is infected
11. Secondary bacterial infections can complicate the disease but thankfully are mostly treatable with antibiotics
12. Some children have died from COVID-19
13. Some seemingly healthy people under 60 have died from the disease
14. Healthy people can often succumb because their immune system is overreacting (see cytokine storm mentioned later point iv) )

Pseudo Facts

These facts don't paint the full picture but are nevertheless bandied around a lot. They are mostly based on analysis of the data (which I've stated already is incomplete) and need much more investigation.

i) Other viruses (and almost certainly COVID-19) do not live long outside the body (minutes) UNLESS they are in droplets of water, saliva, mucus or other hydrating liquids. This means that cloths and absorbent material are VERY GOOD at destroying the thing. However hard surfaces can keep the virus alive for a long time (even several days) 
ii) The death rate (Case Fatality Rate or CFR) for people known to be infected is estimated to be between 1% and 8%. This is really difficult to assess but regardless the authorities are more concerned with the rate of people needing hospital treatment and intensive care/ventilation
iii) Herd immunity would result in the virus dying out after 60 to 70% of the population of the UK has got it (note the UK govt had had to move from this approach because it would overload our health system).  This is largely based on OTHER viruses but seems logical as long as there is little re-infection
iv) The disease can cause a cytokine storm where the body’s immune system produces far too many cytokines which trigger a massive response to the pathogen from the body’s defense cells. This can result in key bodily functions and organs being shut down and sometimes death and often lasting damage. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cytokine_release_syndrome)
v) Surgical masks will not fully protect you in the presence of an infected person as air an droplets of liquid can be inhaled via the edges of the mask.
vi) Fully airtight masks (FFP3) are more effective but great care must be taken when removing them as they are likely to have viral particles on them 
vii) Dogs and cats can catch the virus but we don’t know if they are infectious
viii) 20% of cases require hospital admission (not necessarily 20% of infected people as we DON'T know how many that is). I haven't managed my own sums but this is based on BBC stating around 4 in 5 cases may not need admission.
xi) Younger people make up a large number of hospital admissions. Whilst they aren't so likely to die, probably due to their strong immune systems younger people seem to form a large number of admissions (https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/03/19/younger-adults-are-large-percentage-coronavirus-hospitalizations-united-states-according-new-cdc-data/)

Unsubstantiated Information

This is information I've gleaned from sources (all mentioned) but which we do not have the data to confirm or deny. We should not ignore the risks that these points imply – I’ve only added ones I think are likely to be true and a high impact if they are true.

1. Re-infection by the virus is possible and indeed *may* cause a worse outcome as re-infection may have increased risk of causing a cytokine storm in the individual 
2. Ibuprofen can significantly worsen the disease and outcomes  (https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/03/18/818026613/advice-from-france-to-avoid-ibuprofen-for-covid-19-leaves-experts-baffled?t=1584882911715)
3. Drinking plenty of liquid when you have a mild version of the virus (in the upper respiratory tract) can help wash the virus down to the stomach and stop running out of control and ending up in the lungs. This seems possible but a bit unlikely however staying hydrated is very important so do it anyway even if you don’t have the virus
4. Many more people currently have it than the government expects due to the long period people do not exhibit symptoms. This will be even worse if it turns out a substantial number of people never display symptoms.

Questions which we need answering ASAP 

and assumptions I suggest we make whilst they remain unanswered

A) Is the disease mainly spread through the Aerosol effect? [ASSUME:  this IS the case hence the UK govt encouraging people to stay meters apart – although this will not be enough in many cases as the aerosol effect means particles can hang in the air for a period of time]
B) We need evidence whether people can carry the virus and spread it whilst remaining largely asymptomatic without ever displaying significant symptoms. This especially applies to kids. If so what proportion of infections do we think this applies to? [ASSUME:  this IS the case and that people who are well maybe infectious so keep our distance]
C) What is the genuine length of time people are infectious whilst asymptomatic?
D) Can re-infection occur? [ASSSUME: Some level of re-infection is possible and so if you get COVID-19 put yourself in the AT RISK category afterwards until we have more information)
E) Does a re-infected person spread the disease? [ASSUME: they do until we hear otherwise]
F) Can re-infection cause worse outcomes due to the body overacting to the pathogen it recognised?  [ASSUME: it does do until we hear otherwise]
G) Can  Ibuprofen (eg Nurofen) make the disease worse? [ASSUME: Until we have more info if your doctor hasn’t prescribed Ibuprofen I would stick to paracetamol on the off-chance. To me it seems likely that there could be an issue here especially for diabetics or people with hypertension (as in UK govt advice: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/ibuprofen-use-and-covid19coronavirus)
H) Can animals catch the virus – especially dogs and cats? If this is the case then we need to find out very quickly if they can infect people and hence cause an animal reservoir of the disease ) https://www.afcd.gov.hk/english/publications/publications_press/pr2346.html?mod=article_inline).  [ASSUME: I think we are fairly safe to assume  reinfection from animals is not like to be a serious problem at the moment]


Useful Reading

Guardian Article on some Myths debunked (I agree with most):

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/21/can-face-mask-protect-me-coronavirus-covid-19-myths-busted

Lancet letter which triggered concern over Ibuprofen

https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S2213-2600%2820%2930116-8

Article on Aerosol Transmission vs Surface transmission

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3682679/

NHS Guidance on When You need to use FFP3 masks (i.e. with coronavirus)

https://www.rdash.nhs.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/Appendix-47-Surgical-Face-Mask-FFP3.pdf

National Geographic article from Feb 2020 about how the virus damages patients.

https://www.nationalgeographic.co.uk/science-and-technology/2020/02/heres-what-coronavirus-does-body