Friday, October 23, 2020

Viral load Is almost certainly important

Circumstantial evidence is mounting that viral load (as we would expect from other viruses) is important.

Another Dr John special:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NQ1h33mPGuU 

What does this mean for us in everyday life, remembering the virus is largely transmitting through aerosol?


1) Ventilation is important

2) Hand shakes are best avoided - or wipe your hands on material afterwards

3) Masks remain important 

4) Distance will help



Infection Fatality Rate Low - Evidence of my assumption at last

 

Dr. John Campbell give a good explanation of the WHO / Stanford Study.

NB for comparison Flu is about 0.04% to 0.1% annually (Ref: https://reason.com/2020/05/24/the-cdcs-new-best-estimate-implies-a-covid-19-infection-fatality-rate-below-0-3/). 

Overall it's looking like if you are exposed to the virus your chance of death is statistically is very low:

0.23% (Median) which is lower than many Influenza viruses


Most areas will be more like 0.20%

People UNDER 70 range from 0% to 0.31% with a median of 0.05%

So if you are under 70 and healthy it is very low and about the SAME or less as Seasonal FLU

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ofGMSH5tjYk


The only 2 things I'd add are:


A) That Covid 19 is much more infectious than most seasonal flu so while the IFR is low it will results in more deaths than seasonal flu.

B) The inoculant (viral load / amount of virus) you get initially and subsequently will have a big impact on how ill you get and risk of death.